The Cancer Spectrum Theory.

SUMMARY: Biological characteristics of tumors are heterogeneous, forming spectra in terms of several factors such as age at onset, anatomic spatial localization, tumor subtyping, and the degree of tumor aggressiveness (encompassing a neoplastic property spectrum). Instead of blindly using dichotomized approaches, the application of the multicategorical and continuous analysis approaches to detailed cancer spectrum data can contribute to a better understanding of the etiology of cancer, ultimately leading to effective prevention and precision oncology. We provide examples of cancer spectra and emphasize the importance of integrating the cancer spectrum theory into large-scale population cancer research.

Alcohol and colorectal cancer risk subclassified by mutational signatures of DNA mismatch repair deficiency.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether the association between alcohol consumption and CRC incidence was stronger for tumors with higher contributions of defective MMR (dMMR)-related tumor mutational signatures (TMSs). METHODS: We used data from 227,916 men and women who participated in the Nurses' Health Study (1980-2016), the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2017), and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2016). Dietary data was collected every 4 years through validated food frequency questionnaires. Relative contributions of two dMMR-related TMSs (c-dMMRa/SBS15 and c-dMMRb/SBS26) were quantified using whole-exome sequencing data in a subset of incident CRC cases. Duplication-method Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between alcohol consumption and the risk of CRC subtypes according to different contributions of the TMSs. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: We documented 825 incident CRC cases with available TMS data over 26-36 years of follow-up. The association between alcohol consumption and CRC incidence was stronger for tumors with higher contributions of c-dMMRb/SBS26 (P-heterogeneitytrend = 0.02) compared to tumors with lower contributions of this TMS. Compared with nondrinkers, drinkers with ≥15 g/d of alcohol had a high risk of c-dMMRb/SBS26-high CRC [multivariable-adjusted HR: 2.43 (95% CI: 1.55-3.82)], but not c-dMMRb/SBS26-low CRC [0.86 (95% CI: 0.57-1.28)] or c-dMMRb/SBS26-moderate CRC [1.14 (95% CI: 0.76-1.71)]. No significant differential associations were observed for c-dMMRa/SBS15 (P-heterogeneitytrend = 0.41). CONCLUSIONS: High alcohol consumption was associated with an increased incidence of CRC containing higher contributions of c-dMMRb/SBS26, suggesting that alcohol consumption may be involved in colorectal carcinogenesis through the DNA mismatch repair pathway.

Dietary Fiber Intake and Risk of Advanced and Aggressive Forms of Prostate Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of 15 Prospective Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of prostate cancer (PC) and PC mortality is limited. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between intakes of dietary fiber overall and by food source and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of PC. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of the primary data in 15 cohorts in three continents. Baseline dietary fiber intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire or diet history in each study. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: 842,149 men were followed for up to 9-22 years between 1985-2009 across studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measures were advanced (stage T4, N1, or M1 or PC mortality), advanced restricted (excluded men with missing stage and those with localized PC who died of PC), high grade (Gleason score ≥8 or poorly differentiated/undifferentiated) PC, and PC mortality. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Study-specific multivariable hazard ratios (MVHR) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and pooled using random effects models. RESULTS: Intake of dietary fiber overall, from fruits, and from vegetables was not associated with risk of advanced (n=4,863), advanced restricted (n=2,978), or high-grade PC (n=9,673) or PC mortality (n=3,097). Dietary fiber intake from grains was inversely associated with advanced PC (MVHR comparing the highest vs. lowest quintile=0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.93), advanced restricted PC (MVHR=0.85, 95%CI 0.74-0.97), and PC mortality (MVHR=0.78, 95%CI 0.68-0.89); statistically significant trends were noted for each of these associations (p≤0.03), while a null association was observed for high grade PC for the same comparison (MVHR=1.00, 95%CI 0.93-1.07). The comparable results were 1.06 (95%CI 1.01-1.10, p-value, test for trend=0.002) for localized (n=35,199) and 1.05 (95%CI 0.99-1.11, , p-value, test for trend=0.04) for low/intermediate grade (n=34,366) PC. CONCLUSIONS: Weak nonsignificant associations were observed between total dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced forms of PC, high grade PC, and PC mortality. High dietary fiber intake from grains was associated with a modestly lower risk of advanced forms of PC and PC mortality.

Causal Selection of Covariates in Regression Calibration for Mismeasured Continuous Exposure.

Regression calibration as developed by Rosner, Spiegelman, and Willett is used to adjust the bias in effect estimates due to measurement error in continuous exposures. The method involves two models: a measurement error model relating the mismeasured exposure to the true (or gold-standard) exposure and an outcome model relating the mismeasured exposure to the outcome. However, no comprehensive guidance exists for determining which covariates should be included in each model. In this article, we investigate the selection of the minimal and most efficient covariate adjustment sets under a causal inference framework. We show that to address the measurement error, researchers must adjust for, in both measurement error and outcome models, any common causes (1) of true exposure and the outcome and (2) of measurement error and the outcome. We also show that adjusting for so-called prognostic variables that are independent of true exposure and measurement error in the outcome model, may increase efficiency, while adjusting for any covariates that are associated only with true exposure generally results in efficiency loss in realistic settings. We apply the proposed covariate selection approach to the Health Professional Follow-up Study dataset to study the effect of fiber intake on cardiovascular disease. Finally, we extend the originally proposed estimators to a nonparametric setting where effect modification by covariates is allowed.

Weighting estimation in the cause-specific Cox regression with partially missing causes of failure.

Complex diseases are often analyzed using disease subtypes classified by multiple biomarkers to study pathogenic heterogeneity. In such molecular pathological epidemiology research, we consider a weighted Cox proportional hazard model to evaluate the effect of exposures on various disease subtypes under competing-risk settings in the presence of partially or completely missing biomarkers. The asymptotic properties of the inverse and augmented inverse probability-weighted estimating equation methods are studied with a general pattern of missing data. Simulation studies have been conducted to demonstrate the double robustness of the estimators. For illustration, we applied this method to examine the association between pack-years of smoking before the age of 30 and the incidence of colorectal cancer subtypes defined by a combination of four tumor molecular biomarkers (statuses of microsatellite instability, CpG island methylator phenotype, BRAF mutation, and KRAS mutation) in the Nurses' Health Study cohort.

Soft classification and regression analysis of audiometric phenotypes of age-related hearing loss.

Age-related hearing loss has a complex etiology. Researchers have made efforts to classify relevant audiometric phenotypes, aiming to enhance medical interventions and improve hearing health. We leveraged existing pattern analyses of age-related hearing loss and implemented the phenotype classification via quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA). We herein propose a method for analyzing the exposure effects on the soft classification probabilities of the phenotypes via estimating equations. Under reasonable assumptions, the estimating equations are unbiased and lead to consistent estimators. The resulting estimator had good finite sample performances in simulation studies. As an illustrative example, we applied our proposed methods to assess the association between a dietary intake pattern, assessed as adherence scores for the dietary approaches to stop hypertension diet calculated using validated food-frequency questionnaires, and audiometric phenotypes (older-normal, metabolic, sensory, and metabolic plus sensory), determined based on data obtained in the Nurses' Health Study II Conservation of Hearing Study, the Audiology Assessment Arm. Our findings suggested that participants with a more healthful dietary pattern were less likely to develop the metabolic plus sensory phenotype of age-related hearing loss.

Hypothesis Tests for Continuous Audiometric Threshold Data.

OBJECTIVES: Hypothesis tests for hearing threshold data may be challenging due to the special structure of the response variable, which consists of the measurements from the participant's two ears at multiple frequencies. The commonly-used methods may have inflated type I error rates for the global test that examines whether exposure-hearing threshold associations exist in at least one of the frequencies. We propose using both-ear methods, including all frequencies in the same model for hypothesis testing. DESIGN: We compared the both-ear method to commonly used single-ear methods, such as the worse-ear, better-ear, left/right-ear, average-ear methods, and both-ear methods that evaluate individual audiometric frequencies in separate models, through both theoretical consideration and a simulation study. Differences between the methods were illustrated using hypothesis tests for the associations between the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension adherence score and 3-year change in hearing thresholds among participants in the Conservation of Hearing Study. RESULTS: We found that (1) in the absence of ear-level confounders, the better-ear, worse-ear and left/right-ear methods have less power for frequency-specific tests and for the global test; (2) in the presence of ear-level confounders, the better-ear and worse-ear methods are invalid, and the left/right-ear and average-ear methods have less power, with the power loss in the left/right-ear much greater than the average-ear method, for frequency-specific tests and for the global test; and (3) the both-ear method with separate analyses for individual frequencies is invalid for the global test. CONCLUSIONS: For hypothesis testing to evaluate whether there are significant associations between an exposure of interest and audiometric hearing threshold measurements, the both-ear method that includes all frequencies in the same model is the recommended analytic approach.

The Impact of Excluding Adverse Neonatal Outcomes on the Creation of Gestational Weight Gain Charts Among Women from Low- and Middle-income Countries with Normal and Overweight BMI.

BACKGROUND: Existing gestational weight gain (GWG) charts vary considerably in their choice of exclusion/inclusion criteria, and it is unclear to what extent these criteria create differences in the charts' percentile values. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to establish the impact of including/excluding pregnancies with adverse neonatal outcomes when constructing GWG charts. METHODS: This is an individual participant data analysis from 31 studies from low- and middle-income countries. We created a dataset that included all participants and a dataset restricted to those with no adverse neonatal outcomes: preterm < 37 wk, small or large for gestational age, low birth weight < 2500 g, or macrosomia > 4000 g. Quantile regression models were used to create GWG curves from 9 to 40 wk, stratified by prepregnancy BMI, in each dataset. RESULTS: The dataset without the exclusion criteria applied included 14,685 individuals with normal weight and 4831 with overweight. After removing adverse neonatal outcomes, 10,479 individuals with normal weight and 3466 individuals with overweight remained. GWG distributions at 13, 27, and 40 wk were virtually identical between the datasets with and without the exclusion criteria, except at 40 wk for normal weight and 27 wk for overweight. For the 10th and 90th percentiles, the differences between the estimated GWG were larger for overweight (∼1.5 kg) compared with normal weight (<1 kg). Removal of adverse neonatal outcomes had minimal impact on GWG trajectories of normal weight. For overweight, the percentiles estimated in the dataset without the criteria were slightly higher than those in the dataset with the criteria applied. Nevertheless, differences were <1 kg and virtually nonexistent at the end of pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Removing pregnancies with adverse neonatal outcomes has little or no influence on the GWG trajectories of individuals with normal and overweight.

CUL4B mutations impair human cortical neurogenesis through PP2A-dependent inhibition of AKT and ERK.

Mutation in CUL4B gene is one of the most common causes for X-linked intellectual disability (XLID). CUL4B is the scaffold protein in CUL4B-RING ubiquitin ligase (CRL4B) complex. While the roles of CUL4B in cancer progression and some developmental processes like adipogenesis, osteogenesis, and spermatogenesis have been studied, the mechanisms underlying the neurological disorders in patients with CUL4B mutations are poorly understood. Here, using 2D neuronal culture and cerebral organoids generated from the patient-derived induced pluripotent stem cells and their isogenic controls, we demonstrate that CUL4B is required to prevent premature cell cycle exit and precocious neuronal differentiation of neural progenitor cells. Moreover, loss-of-function mutations of CUL4B lead to increased synapse formation and enhanced neuronal excitability. Mechanistically, CRL4B complex represses transcription of PPP2R2B and PPP2R2C genes, which encode two isoforms of the regulatory subunit of protein phosphatase 2 A (PP2A) complex, through catalyzing monoubiquitination of H2AK119 in their promoter regions. CUL4B mutations result in upregulated PP2A activity, which causes inhibition of AKT and ERK, leading to premature cell cycle exit. Activation of AKT and ERK or inhibition of PP2A activity in CUL4B mutant organoids rescues the neurogenesis defect. Our work unveils an essential role of CUL4B in human cortical development.

Dietary protein intake in midlife in relation to healthy aging - results from the prospective Nurses' Health Study cohort.

BACKGROUND: Protein intake plays an important role in maintaining the health status of older adults. However, few epidemiologic studies examined midlife protein intake in relation to healthy aging. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term role of dietary protein intake in healthy aging among female participants in the prospective Nurses' Health Study (NHS) cohort. METHODS: We included 48,762 NHS participants aged <60 y in 1984. Total protein, animal protein, dairy protein (a subset of animal protein), and plant protein were derived from validated food frequency questionnaires. Healthy aging was defined as being free from 11 major chronic diseases, having good mental health, and not having impairments in either cognitive or physical function, as assessed in the 2014 or 2016 NHS participant questionnaires. We used multivariate logistic regression adjusted for lifestyle, demographics, and health status to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for protein intake in relation to healthy aging. RESULTS: A total of 3721 (7.6%) NHS participants met our healthy aging definition. Protein intake was significantly associated with higher odds of healthy aging. The ORs (95% confidence intervals) per 3%-energy increment with healthy aging were 1.05 (1.01, 1.10) for total protein, 1.07 (1.02, 1.11) for animal protein, 1.14 (1.06, 1.23) for dairy protein, and 1.38 (1.24, 1.54) for plant protein. Plant protein was also associated with higher odds of absence of physical function limitations and good mental status. In substitution analyses, we observed significant positive associations for the isocaloric replacement of animal or dairy protein, carbohydrate, or fat with plant protein (ORs for healthy aging: 1.22-1.58 for 3% energy replacement with plant protein). CONCLUSIONS: Dietary protein intake, especially plant protein, in midlife, is associated with higher odds of healthy aging and with several domains of positive health status in a large cohort of female nurses.

Two Randomized Trials of Low-Dose Calcium Supplementation in Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends 1500 to 2000 mg of calcium daily as supplementation, divided into three doses, for pregnant persons in populations with low dietary calcium intake in order to reduce the risk of preeclampsia. The complexity of the dosing scheme, however, has led to implementation barriers. METHODS: We conducted two independent randomized trials of calcium supplementation, in India and Tanzania, to assess the noninferiority of a 500-mg daily dose to a 1500-mg daily dose of calcium supplementation. In each trial, the two primary outcomes were preeclampsia and preterm birth, and the noninferiority margins for the relative risks were 1.54 and 1.16, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 11,000 nulliparous pregnant women were included in each trial. The cumulative incidence of preeclampsia was 3.0% in the 500-mg group and 3.6% in the 1500-mg group in the India trial (relative risk, 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 1.03) and 3.0% and 2.7%, respectively, in the Tanzania trial (relative risk, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.36) - findings consistent with the noninferiority of the lower dose in both trials. The percentage of live births that were preterm was 11.4% in the 500-mg group and 12.8% in the 1500-mg group in the India trial (relative risk, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.98), which was within the noninferiority margin of 1.16; in the Tanzania trial, the respective percentages were 10.4% and 9.7% (relative risk, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.21), which exceeded the noninferiority margin. CONCLUSIONS: In these two trials, low-dose calcium supplementation was noninferior to high-dose calcium supplementation with respect to the risk of preeclampsia. It was noninferior with respect to the risk of preterm live birth in the trial in India but not in the trial in Tanzania. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03350516; Clinical Trials Registry-India number, CTRI/2018/02/012119; and Tanzania Medicines and Medical Devices Authority Trials Registry number, TFDA0018/CTR/0010/5).

Comparison between inverse-probability weighting and multiple imputation in Cox model with missing failure subtype.

Identifying and distinguishing risk factors for heterogeneous disease subtypes has been of great interest. However, missingness in disease subtypes is a common problem in those data analyses. Several methods have been proposed to deal with the missing data, including complete-case analysis, inverse-probability weighting, and multiple imputation. Although extant literature has compared these methods in missing problems, none has focused on the competing risk setting. In this paper, we discuss the assumptions required when complete-case analysis, inverse-probability weighting, and multiple imputation are used to deal with the missing failure subtype problem, focusing on how to implement these methods under various realistic scenarios in competing risk settings. Besides, we compare these three methods regarding their biases, efficiency, and robustness to model misspecifications using simulation studies. Our results show that complete-case analysis can be seriously biased when the missing completely at random assumption does not hold. Inverse-probability weighting and multiple imputation estimators are valid when we correctly specify the corresponding models for missingness and for imputation, and multiple imputation typically shows higher efficiency than inverse-probability weighting. However, in real-world studies, building imputation models for the missing subtypes can be more challenging than building missingness models. In that case, inverse-probability weighting could be preferred for its easy usage. We also propose two automated model selection procedures and demonstrate their usage in a study of the association between smoking and colorectal cancer subtypes in the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professional Follow-Up Study.

Lifetime dairy product consumption and breast cancer risk: a prospective cohort study by tumor subtypes.

BACKGROUND: Previous literature on dairy products and risk of breast cancer is inconsistent, and the relationship may depend on the life-period of dietary assessment. OBJECTIVE: We examined dairy consumption from adolescence through later adulthood and incidence of breast cancer by menopausal status and tumor molecular subtypes in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), a prospective cohort study. METHODS: We analyzed data from 63,847 females in the NHS collected from 1980 to 2018. Average intake of dairy products during adulthood was assessed by validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires throughout follow-up. Participants recalled adolescent dietary intake in 1986. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) relating dairy product consumption to breast cancer risk overall, by menopausal status, and by subtypes. RESULTS: We documented 5733 incident cases of invasive breast cancer during 32 y of follow-up (n = 5298 postmenopausal). Lifetime, adolescent, adulthood, and postmenopausal total dairy and milk intakes were not associated with overall breast cancer risk (nonsignificant HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile range = 0.97-1.08), although there was a suggestive positive association between adolescent milk intake and breast cancer risk (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.18). Higher lifetime and premenopausal cheese intakes were associated with modestly lower risks of breast cancer (comparing highest with lowest quintile, HR for lifetime cheese intake: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.98; HR for premenopausal cheese intake: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79, 1.00). Results varied by tumor subtype and some evidence for heterogeneity was observed for an association between premenopausal milk intake and breast cancer (HR for estrogen receptor [ER]-positive: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.99; ER-negative: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.84; P heterogeneity = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that overall dairy consumption was not associated with risk of breast cancer. However, heterogeneity was observed for type of dairy food, period of life, and tumor subtypes.

Low-Carbohydrate Diet Macronutrient Quality and Weight Change.

Importance: The associations of low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) with long-term weight management remains unclear, and the source and quality of macronutrients within LCDs are less explored. Objectives: To prospectively examine associations between changes in LCD indices and weight change among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included initially healthy participants at baseline from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; 1986-2010), Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII; 1991-2015), and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986-2018). Data analysis was performed between November 2022 and April 2023. Exposures: Five LCD indices were examined: (1) a total LCD (TLCD) emphasizing overall lower carbohydrate intake; (2) an animal-based LCD (ALCD) that emphasized animal-sourced protein and fat; (3) a vegetable-based LCD (VLCD) that emphasized plant-sourced protein and fat; (4) a healthy LCD (HLCD) emphasizing less refined carbohydrates, more plant protein, and healthy fat; and (5) an unhealthy LCD (ULCD) emphasizing less healthful carbohydrates, more animal protein, and unhealthy fat. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome of interest was 4-year changes in self-reported body weight. Results: A total of 123 332 participants (mean [SD] age, 45.0 [9.7] years; 103 320 [83.8%] female) were included in this study. The median carbohydrate intake (as a percentage of energy) of the highest quintiles of TLCD score at baseline ranged from 38.3% in HPFS to 40.9% in NHSII. Mean weight gain over 4-year intervals among participants varied from 0.8 kg in the HPFS to 1.8 kg in the NHSII. After adjusting for demographics and baseline and concomitant changes of selected lifestyle factors, each 1-SD increase in TLCD score was associated with 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.08) kg more weight gain over the 4-year periods. Similarly, participants gained 0.13 (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.14) kg per each 1-SD increase in ALCD score and 0.39 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.40) kg per each 1-SD change in ULCD score. In contrast, each 1-SD increase in VLCD score was associated with 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.04) kg less weight gain, and each 1-SD increase in HLCD score was associated with 0.36 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.38) kg less weight gain. The associations were more pronounced among obese individuals (per 1-SD increase in HLCD score: BMI ≥30, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.80, 0.97] kg less weight gain; BMI <25, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.20, 0.26] kg less weight gain; P for interaction < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the quality of LCDs may play a critical role in modulating long-term weight change. Only LCDs that emphasized high-quality protein, fat, and carbohydrates from whole grains and other plant-based foods were associated with less weight gain.

Suboptimal gestational weight gain and neonatal outcomes in low and middle income countries: individual participant data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the associations between gestational weight gain (GWG) during pregnancy and neonatal outcomes in low and middle income countries. DESIGN: Individual participant data meta-analysis. SETTING: Prospective pregnancy studies from 24 low and middle income countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Nine neonatal outcomes related to timing (preterm birth) and anthropometry (weight, length, and head circumference) at birth, stillbirths, and neonatal death. ANALYSIS METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science which identified 53 prospective pregnancy studies published after the year 2000 with data on GWG, timing and anthropometry at birth, and neonatal mortality. GWG adequacy was defined as the ratio of the observed maternal weight gain over the recommended weight gain based on the Institute of Medicine body mass index specific guidelines, which are derived from data in high income settings, and the INTERGROWTH-21st GWG standards. Study specific estimates, adjusted for confounders, were generated and then pooled using random effects meta-analysis models. Maternal age and body mass index before pregnancy were examined as potential modifiers of the associations between GWG adequacy and neonatal outcomes. RESULTS: Overall, 55% of participants had severely inadequate (<70%) or moderately inadequate (70% to <90%) GWG, 22% had adequate GWG (90-125%), and 23% had excessive GWG (≥125%). Severely inadequate GWG was associated with a higher risk of low birthweight (adjusted relative risk 1.62, 95% confidence interval 1.51 to 1.72; 48 studies, 93 337 participants; τ2=0.006), small for gestational age (1.44, 1.36 to 1.54; 51 studies, 93 191 participants; τ2=0.016), short for gestational age (1.47, 1.29 to 1.69; 40 studies, 83 827 participants; τ2=0.074), and microcephaly (1.57, 1.31 to 1.88; 31 studies, 80 046 participants; τ2=0.145) compared with adequate GWG. Excessive GWG was associated with a higher risk of preterm birth (1.22, 1.13 to 1.31; 48 studies, 103 762 participants; τ2=0.008), large for gestational age (1.44, 1.33 to 1.57; 47 studies, 90 044 participants; τ2=0.009), and macrosomia (1.52, 1.33 to 1.73; 29 studies, 68 138 participants; τ2=0) compared with adequate GWG. The direction and magnitude of the associations between GWG adequacy and several neonatal outcomes were modified by maternal age and body mass index before pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Inadequate and excessive GWG are associated with a higher risk of adverse neonatal outcomes across settings. Interventions to promote optimal GWG during pregnancy are likely to reduce the burden of adverse neonatal outcomes, however further research is needed to assess optimal ranges of GWG based on data from low and middle income countries.

Inverse relationship between Fusobacterium nucleatum amount and tumor CD274 (PD-L1) expression in colorectal carcinoma.

Objectives: The CD274 (programmed cell death 1 ligand 1, PD-L1)/PDCD1 (programmed cell death 1, PD-1) immune checkpoint axis is known to regulate the antitumor immune response. Evidence also supports an immunosuppressive effect of Fusobacterium nucleatum. We hypothesised that tumor CD274 overexpression might be inversely associated with abundance of F. nucleatum in colorectal carcinoma. Methods: We assessed tumor CD274 expression by immunohistochemistry and F. nucleatum DNA within tumor tissue by quantitative PCR in 812 cases among 4465 incident rectal and colon cancer cases that had occurred in two prospective cohort studies. Multivariable logistic regression analyses with inverse probability weighting were used to adjust for selection bias because of tissue data availability and potential confounders including microsatellite instability status, CpG island methylator phenotype, LINE-1 methylation level and KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations. Results: Fusobacterium nucleatum DNA was detected in tumor tissue in 109 (13%) cases. Tumor CD274 expression level was inversely associated with the amount of F. nucleatum in colorectal cancer tissue (P = 0.0077). For one category-unit increase in three ordinal F. nucleatum categories (negative vs. low vs. high), multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (with 95% confidence interval) of the low, intermediate and high CD274 categories (vs. negative) were 0.78 (0.41-1.51), 0.64 (0.32-1.28) and 0.50 (0.25-0.99), respectively (P trend = 0.032). Conclusions: Tumor CD274 expression level was inversely associated with the amount of F. nucleatum in colorectal cancer tissue, suggesting that different immunosuppressive mechanisms (i.e. PDCD1 immune checkpoint activation and tumor F. nucleatum enrichment) tend to be used by different tumor subgroups.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for post-polypectomy colorectal cancer in the USA: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Effective risk stratification tools for post-polypectomy colorectal cancer (PPCRC) are lacking. We aimed to develop an effective risk stratification tool for the prediction of PPCRC in three large population-based cohorts and to validate the tool in a clinical cohort. Methods: Leveraging the integrated endoscopic, histopathologic and epidemiologic data in three U.S population-based cohorts of health professional (the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I, II and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS)), we developed a risk score to predict incident PPCRC among 26,741 patients with a polypectomy between 1986 and 2017. We validated the PPCRC score in the Mass General Brigham (MGB) Colonoscopy Cohort (Boston, Massachusetts, U.S) of 76,603 patients with a polypectomy between 2007 and 2018. In all four cohorts, we collected detailed data on patients' demographics, endoscopic history, polyp features, and lifestyle factors at polypectomy. The outcome, incidence of PPCRC, was assessed by biennial follow-up questionnaires in the NHS/HPFS cohorts, and through linkage to the Massachusetts Cancer Registry in the MGB cohort. In all four cohorts, individuals who were diagnosed with CRC or died before baseline or within six months after baseline were excluded. We used Cox regression to calculate the hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI) and assessed the discrimination using C-statistics and reclassification using the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Findings: During a median follow-up of 12.8 years (interquartile range (IQR): 9.3, 16.7) and 5.1 years (IQR: 2.7, 7.8) in the NHS/HPFS and MGB cohorts, we documented 220 and 241 PPCRC cases, respectively. We identified a PPCRC risk score based on 11 predictors. In the validation cohort, the PPCRC risk score showed a strong association with PPCRC risk (HR for high vs. low, 3.55, 95% CI, 2.59-4.88) and demonstrated a C-statistic (95% CI) of 0.75 (0.70-0.79), and was discriminatory even within the low- and high-risk polyp groups (C-statistic, 0.73 and 0.71, respectively) defined by the current colonoscopy surveillance recommendations, leading to a NRI of 45% (95% CI, 36-54%) for patients with PPCRC. Interpretation: We developed and validated a risk stratification model for PPCRC that may be useful to guide tailored colonoscopy surveillance. Further work is needed to determine the optimal surveillance interval and test the added value of other predictors of PPCRC beyond those included in the current study, along with implementation studies. Funding: US National Institutes of Health, the American Cancer Society, the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Analytical method for detecting outlier evaluators.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic and medical studies often rely on evaluators to obtain measurements of exposures or outcomes for study participants, and valid estimates of associations depends on the quality of data. Even though statistical methods have been proposed to adjust for measurement errors, they often rely on unverifiable assumptions and could lead to biased estimates if those assumptions are violated. Therefore, methods for detecting potential 'outlier' evaluators are needed to improve data quality during data collection stage. METHODS: In this paper, we propose a two-stage algorithm to detect 'outlier' evaluators whose evaluation results tend to be higher or lower than their counterparts. In the first stage, evaluators' effects are obtained by fitting a regression model. In the second stage, hypothesis tests are performed to detect 'outlier' evaluators, where we consider both the power of each hypothesis test and the false discovery rate (FDR) among all tests. We conduct an extensive simulation study to evaluate the proposed method, and illustrate the method by detecting potential 'outlier' audiologists in the data collection stage for the Audiology Assessment Arm of the Conservation of Hearing Study, an epidemiologic study for examining risk factors of hearing loss in the Nurses' Health Study II. RESULTS: Our simulation study shows that our method not only can detect true 'outlier' evaluators, but also is less likely to falsely reject true 'normal' evaluators. CONCLUSIONS: Our two-stage 'outlier' detection algorithm is a flexible approach that can effectively detect 'outlier' evaluators, and thus data quality can be improved during data collection stage.